IS THIS A BULL MARKET OR NOT?

The answer varies acording to who you ask. Two well respected authorities on investing give two different answers.

According to Steven Goldberg, D.C. investment advisor, many investors have simply stood by and watched during this bull market, which began on March 9, 2009. He has stated that $4.8 trillion is invested in stock mutual funds. But, as a group, investors have been selling, not buying, during one of the most powerful rallies in history. The fear of more losses has been a more potent consideration for most investors.

Furthermore, the investors who rushed into bond funds have made a poor choice because the Fed, by sustaining short-term interest rates near zero and pumping money into our Nation’s dilapidated economy, may be setting the country up for a significant jump in inflation in the near future. At which time, bond yields will likely rise, thus, pushing down bond prices.

He also states that “over time, two-thirds of actively managed mutual funds fail to match the returns of the index they’re trying to beat.” Earning fund investors a lot less than what this bull market offers.
He offers some advice on how to improve your returns. Goldberg states that for the most part, casual investors should use common sense. “Keep your costs low, invest small amounts regularly, and shy away from investments you don’t understand.” If you have to invest in mutual funds, he recommends you “stick to a portfolio of index funds, and most importantly, do not try to time the market, especially in the short term because no one can.” I will add my own bit of wisdom here “if someone tells you they can time the market they are either a fool or a liar.”
http://www.kiplinger.com/columns/value/archive/investors-are-missing-the-bull-market.html
On the other hand, Todd Harrison, founder and CEO of Minyanville has written a commentary that was published on Yahoo: finance. He gives 10 reasons why he believes that most investor think this is a bull market but in reality “we are witnessing a cyclical bull market in the context of a prolonged and painful secular bear stretch”. Harrison states that it his opinion that the tide is about to turn.

His 10 reasons are (and I summarize)
"Questions remain on a Greek aid package in front of 20 billion euros in debt that comes due in April and May.

New health care legislation could add hundreds of billions of dollars to already yawning budget deficits.

State budgets are cracking and unfunded pension liabilities have reached $452 B.

Societal acrimony has evolved into social unrest in some parts of the world, and economic hardship is pointing towards geopolitical conflict.

Complacency abounds, as measured by traditional volatility measures such as the Volatility Index.

Protectionism in the US, China, Greece and many other countries continue to grow. Protectionism is on the opposite end of "globalization" on the prosperity spectrum.

The official unemployment rate is just below 10%, but nearly 1/5 of Americans is underemployed for various reasons.

Interest rates have one way to go, and PE ratios never dipped and debt-to-GDP ratios will approach or exceed 100% in all G7 countries by 2014, with the exception of Germany and Canada.

The Congressional Oversight Panel warns that commercial real estate losses at banks alone could reach $300 billion starting in 2011.

and Most have even forgotten about the housing crisis. There are still massive amounts of toxic residential mortgage backed securities that remain on the private and public balance sheets."

He also states “If you asked me for my near-term opinion, I would offer that the tape tops out before quarter-end under S&P 1200, consistent with the path of maximum frustration as fund managers reach for performance.”
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/109164/the-falcon-and-the-snowman

Stock Alert for A.P. Pharma Inc. (APPA)

This story is a great example of how investing in small cap biotech stocks can be unnerving and sometimes very risky. It takes a strong stomach to weather the ups and downs that come with getting a new drug to market. A.P. Pharma Inc. (APPA) is a specialty pharmaceutical company focused on developing pharmaceutical products using their Biochronomer polymer-based drug delivery technology. Their primary focus is on their lead product candidate, APF530, which had completed a pivotal phase III clinical trial for the prevention of chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting and had already been submitted with a New Drug Application (NDA) to the FDA.

I was deep into this stock, believing approval was just around the corner, when last week they received a Complete Response Letter from the FDA regarding APPA's NDA. After the FDA's review of APPA's file they had several questions that precluded the approval of the NDA in its current form. APPA's stock had closed on Thursday March 18, 2010 at $2.06 per share, before the announcement of the Complete Response Letter. On the news, many shareholders bailed out in the pre-market or at the open of the regular session and the stock price plummeted approximately 57% to $0.88 where it opened the next day. I thought that none of the concerns were drastic and all of them could be addressed with moderate to relative ease, thus, I decided to hold on to the stock and see where it was going. I had bought in at $1.76 per share and after a few hours the initial shock wore off and the stock started back up again, so I doubled my position at $0.96 per share. Today APPA closed at $1.10 per share, climbing $0.22 in 3 market days. I still think this is a great stock; they just have a few issues to work out. The success of this company is hinged on the approval of this drug; however, I have no doubt that A.P. Pharma will meet FDA standards for approval. Nevertheless, this did set the timeline back; it will probably be 2011 before they will be in position to resubmit the NDA. Yesterday, Stockpreacher.com published a stock alert for APPA:
Stock Alert for A.P. Pharma Inc. (APPA)

Seattle Genetics Adds Patent to 2025

Seattle Genetics (SGEN) is the developer of antibody treatments for cancer. Today it has received a new patent which will extend its proprietary rights to its lead drug brentuximab vedotin, indicated for Hodgkin’s disease until at least 2025.
Seattle Genetics Adds Patent to 2025

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Small Cap Biotech Pick

Normally I do not read the Motley Fool articles. They have way to many advertisments and they are always trying to sell you some subscription to the list of stocks that are going to make you rich. However, I read this one because it referenced a biotech stock that I have been holding for some time. I am not pumping this stock, just demonstrating how I operate. This stock is listed on the webpage below as one of the top 10 performing stocks of the past 52 weeks with market caps less than $5 billion. Actually, it is number ten. That still does not mean it will get FDA approval and be marketed or bought by big pharma. It is still under $3.00 a share and in today's market, like everything else it jumps or drops on any little news item. About a month ago it went up over $3.00, but after a week or so with little or no news it started dropping. Well it is on the rise again! I only speculate in biotec and small pharma because I am a biologist and I understand the processes of getting drugs through R&D, and to market. If I were a geologist I would probably speculate on oil and gas, but I am not, so I don't. Two good rules to follow: 1. buy what you know. 2. Do your own DD. I have never bought a stock just because someone told me it would do well. Anyway the link to the article is:
Here's Your Shot to Score Big

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$3.00 stock with a $1.10 Dividend

Emerson Radio's (MSN) Board of Directors this morning declared an extraordinary cash dividend of $1.10 per common share payable on March 24, 2010 to shareholders of record at the close of trading on March 15, 2010. It opened this morning at 2.27 and is now around $3.00. share. I have not done any DD on this stock, nor am I recommending anyone buy it. I just think that it is worth investigating, do your own DD.